Theory of Change

Getting clear and precise about what your program entails and how you hope to make a difference


How to Use a Theory of Change

Once you develop an initial ToC for your program, it serves as a working model of the hypotheses you might test. For example, your team might ask:

  1. Are the product or program strategies feasible to implement and acceptable to participants?
  2. Is there evidence to suggest that the targets are changing in the anticipated direction?
  3. Is there evidence to suggest that the outcomes are changing in the anticipated direction?
  4. Do the moderators help explain variability in impact?

Analyses of data after each cycle should align with the questions identified during the evaluation planning process. Results from each cycle can then be used to revise and improve the program and the ToC.

Find more resources on Theory of Change here.

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Reflection Question

The best ToCs are developed by a team of people with different perspectives on the program, including practitioners and members of the community served whenever possible.

Who should be included in the process of developing your program’s ToC?